FEATURED — 28 May 2011
UFC 130 PREDICTIONS!
Here are our UFC 130 Predictions! Be sure and comment your predictions as well!

 

JR DILL:

UFC 130 Predictions

Having no title fights on a UFC card is typically an instant ratings killer in recent years, unless it’s as stacked as tonight’s UFC 130: Rampage VS. Hamill. With a lineup including pivotal matchups between former Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and the surging TUF veteran Matt “The Hammer” Hamill, former Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir and TUF veteran Roy “Big Country” Nelson, UFC 130 should easily work its way into “card of the year” status so far. UFC 130 is boasting a stacked lineup outside of these two main attractions, leaving the MMA world content without our promised Edgar VS. Maynard rematch. Here’s are our rundown of the fights and how we think it will all play out:
Kendall Grove VS. Tim Boetsch:
Grove has been somewhat of a wildcard, going 2-3 in his last five fights including a second round TKO loss to Mark Munoz and losing a one sided decision to ground expert Damian Maia. Even though Boetsch is coming off a hard fought loss to up and comer Phil Davis, we still don’t know what to expect from the Barbarian after going 1-1 in his UFC return. Expect Boetsch to try and keep it on the feet until the later half of the second round where he will try to smother Grove on the ground. But keep a close eye on “Da Spyder” and his long limbs for easy submission attempts.
Pick: Boetsch hands Grove his walking papers via second round TKO.
Miguel Torres VS. Dimtrius Johnson
Miguel Torres is coming off a lack luster UFC debut while playing the safe card and out pointing his much smaller opponent in Anotnio Banuelos. Don’t expect the same from Torres against “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Dimitrius will definitely be pressing hard in this fight as both submission aces look to keep this standing. But watch out for Torres’ standup as he’s known to throw some hard bombs in late rounds.
Pick: Look for Johnson to press hard and control the reach advantage as he goes on for a unanimous decision victory.
Brian Stann VS. Jorge Santiago
Santiago is looking to make his return to the UFC a stellar one after going 1-2 in his last appearance for  the banner. Sadly, however, the former Sengoku champ will be faced with an uphill battle with his first match up against Marine Captain Brian Stann. The All American has shown much improved standup in his new, more fitting weight class, as he dominated a surging Chris Leben in under 4 minutes of a single round. Santiago will be anxious to get this to the ground to add a submission to his list of 12, but Stann will have a quick and easy answer for any trouble the veteran may bring.
Pick: Stann has mentioned there is nothing greater for him than to get a victory during Memorial Day weekend, and look for that as he ends this fight early in the second round with a ground and pound TKO.
Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves
Potential for Fight of the Night is written all over this matchup. Rick “The Horror” Story is on a five win streak tear after losing his UFC debut, and after much complaining he will finally get a “top ten” matchup he deserves. Put a lot of stock in Story’s strong will and heavy hands early on, but  not a lot in his ability to handle devastating leg kicks and right hand of Thiago Alves. The myth of the Pit bull having a gas tank on empty is a thing of the past as we saw in his win over John Howard via unanimous decision. Expect fireworks through this fight for three full rounds as these two love to throw lights out blows.
Pick: Rick Story will be too concerned with crippling leg kicks to focus on Thiago Alves working his way to a split decision victory via a stiff jab and great takedown defense.
Travis Browne VS. Stefan Struve
If Travis Browne expects to have a performance equal to his against Chieck Kongo at UFC 120, he should expect an early turn down service at the hotel. Coming off a draw, only awarded by a point loss by Kongo for grabbing of the shorts, expect a desperate Browne to gas out early in attempts at stopping the up and coming young gun Sky Scraper.
Pick: Look for Struve to keep his distance and land hard blows as he cruises to a second round TKO victory.
Frank Mir VS. Roy Nelson
Fight fans should not rely on these two and their encounter years ago at Grapplers quest. This fight will be either an early knockout victory for Roy Nelso or a drawn out unanimous decision for Mir. Look for both to do everything to keep this on the feet and show how they both have improved their standup.
Pick: Roy Nelson via second round KO.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson VS. Matt Hamill
This fight has become a pivotal matchup in the mixed up world of contention in the Light Heavyweight class. Rampage will be looking for a dominant performance after going 1-1 in his last two somewhat lackluster fights. Watch for Rampage to show he is still the same powerhouse and still ready for contention after declining to face Shogun for the title. Expect Matt Hamill to show this is his time to shine and look to break the will of Rampage, which is far from an easy task.
Pick: Hamill by unanimous decision in a somewhat boring fight.
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Draculino:
1.Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
Hamill. Trains with Bruno, a student of TITI, my student, and currently with Master Renzo. So he is family and a hell of a tough guy. Like Rampage though. He is funny!
 

2.Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson

 

Roy Nelson. He is a BB under Renzo and a super tough guy all over.


 

3.Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve

 

Not familiar with Browne but Stefan is a cool guy. We hang out in Canada, during the GSP vs. Koshcek. Cool guy and very tough all around.

 

4.Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago

 

Great fight! Stann is a role model and a true man. A hero. And of course, super good. But Santiago is from Brazil, my country, and a very tough and entertaining fighter. I think that this one will be fireworks. Maybe fight of the night!

 

5.Rick Story vs Thiago Alves

 

Thiago Pit Bull. Anyone will have his hands full with him.


 

6.Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson

 

Torres, but Johnson impressed me tons domminating Kid Yamamoto. Lots of people in the US don’t know KID but whoever knows about the Japan MMA scene knows that he is a Monster. Torres might out jab him and triangle or guillotine him.


 

7.Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch

 

Grove. But Boetsch is monster strong…..I think that Grove’s reach will make the difference.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
POPPA ROTZEE:

1. Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Hamill – I would pick a younger and hungrier Jackson, but I think right now Hamill is going to pull this one off.


2.Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Frank Mir – This is another tuff call, I actually like Frank Mir, ever since he tapped out Tank Abbott. I wasn’t expecting it at the time and I thought it was awesome. A lot of people don’t like him because they think he is cocky, but I enjoy watching him grapple. He has a guard like a light weight and its fun to watch. Roy Nelson on the other hand is a Renzo Black belt and another guy that I like. I was really impressed with the punishment he took from Dos Santos and the fact that he kept coming.
That said, I think Roy is only in this weight class because of his EXTRA weight. He is short for this weight class and I think Franks height advantage and boxing is good enough to keep Roy at bay while they are standing and hit hard enough to hurt him when he lands. On the ground, this is a tough call for me as well, roy was able to defeat a gased Frank Mir by points in a grappling match, but Roy is no where NEAR the shape he was in when he grappled Mir. I think Frank is good enough to keep it standing, or at least stay safe on the ground so I’ma give the edge to Mir.
(Here is the Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson Grappling)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dj5xMeXybs


3.Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve
Struve – Dont really know these guys, I think I remember Struve being a huge guy that pulled off a nice triangle and finished most of his fights with submissions he is also HUGE and has good reach and some kick boxing. I’m picking him purely on lack of knowledge of the other guy and a decent showing from Struve when i’ve seen him.

4.Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago
Stann – I have a lot of family in the military and I’ve always though Stann was a natural. He did very well even while very new and I  think he is only getting better with time. I don’t think this fight will be easy and I wouldn’t bet on it….but if I have to pick, I’ll go with stann.


5.Rick Story vs Thiago Alves
Alves – Alves is  a beast and although Story is well rounded…I think he is in for some trouble.

6.Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson
Torres – Im a HUGE Miguel Torres fan and I  think hes worked through that little funk he was in. Demetrious is no push over though, he has proven himself to be a tough competitor and has pretty good take downs. I think he is stuck though, I think Miguel will out box him and I think when he takes down Miguel, he will only be jumping out of the frying pan an into the fire.

7.Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch
Grove – Kendall is always getting better and he is such a tall guy for his division. He has excellent reach backed by technical skill, like Torres, I think kendall will use is boxing to frustrate Tim who then use his monster strength to take Kendall down and land himself in a triangle. That is, if Grove doesn’t get caught with and knocked on silly street.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TalkShowOnMute:
I’ll preface this by saying…I am a horrible Pick’ems guy.  I never gamble on MMA for this very reason. It is too dynamic.  So these picks will be based on a system called…”I pulled this from my bum bum.”  Enjoy!
 

1. Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

This is a hard one for me. I think Hamill has progressed alot in the last few years. Super strong wrestler and his hands are powerful. He tends to get in a plodding striking rhythm, but when he lands, it hurts. Rampage, well…it depends which Rampage you get. Sometimes you get an animal, and other times you get a guy who doesn’t really look like he wants to be in there. It would be hard for me to pick as I don’t see either guy finishing this easily. I could foresee Rampage taking this by decision.

2.Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Frank Mir and Roy Nelson. Well…what can I say here. The mullet is pulling me towards Nelson and his Miller High Life belly.  I mean, how can you hate the dude? He has a sweet mullet, he looks like cable installer, and he fights like a madman.  Junior Dos Santos hit him with some of the hardest uppercuts I have ever seen, and Roy took everything JDS could dish out.  I don’t think Mir can KO Roy, and Roy has actually beaten Mir in BJJ before.  So it would be hard for me to imagine Mir finishing Roy.  I think that Mir will stay active and try to pick his shots and work alot of movement.  Suprisingly, of the two fighters, Mir has the most history of gassing in later rounds.  Roy has a really good gastank for such a big boy. I would not bet against him on a foot race to Hardee’s.  I will have to almost just throw out an answer here…Mir by kneebar…2nd round.
3.Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve
I don’t know too much abour Travis Browne other than his record is 10-0 and he has faced a few tough entry-level opponents like Abe Wagner, James McSweeney, and the journeyman fighter Aaron Brink. He fought Cheik Kongo to a draw late last year, so the guy’s standup is solid. But Struve’s length is a killer, and he hits really hard. He has some sneaky submissions that people rarely give him credit for. I’m going to go out on a limb and sat Struve Rnd 2. RNC.
4.Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago
Brian Stann or Jorge Santiago. Jorge Santiago is amazing. But Stann has looked like a different fighter since taking up training MMA full time. I mean, the dude was pretty scary when he was a part-time fighter.  Did you see what he did to the granite-chinned Chris Leben?  Santiago has looked extremely solid standing and on the ground (which may be Stann’s only weakness.)  But Stann has been working his ground game…I’m pretty sure I spit Diet Coke all over my lap when he landed that triangle on Mike Massenzio.  Jorge hits hard. Stann hits hard. Jorge has a bit of an advantage on the ground. But can he take Stann down?  Both men have been stopped by strikes.  I think Jorge might be thinking about taking Stann down, in which case, he will submit Stann.  But if Stann can keep it standing, it will be a long night for Jorge.  I really couldn’t pick one if my life depended on it…So I’ll just randomly say…Hey look over there! *runs away*
5.Rick Story vs Thiago Alves
Rick Story is tough. But I’m going to say Alves muay thai is more diverse than Rick’s striking/wrestling juggernautism.  These guys might cancel each other out with their strenghts and weaknesses.  Alves decision victory. 

6.Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson
Mighty Mouse! I love that little guy. That being said, I have to pick Miguel.  Miguel has been through some rough spots recently, but historically, he is the sharper finisher.  I have to say Miguel by Submission round 2. (Triangle or RNC)

 

7.Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch

Tim Boetsch.  I don’t Kendall can handle his strength. Boetsch needs to avoid taking Kendall down and falling directly into a triangle. Boetsch GNP rd. 1
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BABALU:
 

1. Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Jackson
2.Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Nelson
 

3.Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve

Struve

 

4.Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago

Stann

 

5.Rick Story vs Thiago Alves

Alves

 

6.Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson

Torres

 

7.Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch

Grove

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WHITEBOI:

1.Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
2.Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Roy nelson – Due to his renzo gracie affilation and i herd nothing about great things about his bjj instructuons and teaching and i love the less fit guy in this fight.
3.Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve
Stefan struve – he is very lengthy and is getting better in all aspects of his game.
4.Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago
Jorge santiago.
5.Rick Sotry vs Thiago Alves
Thiago alves – The pitbull is muy thai is to good to loose this fight.
6.Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson
Demertrious Johnson – should win this one farley easy miguel torres first ufc performance was less than impressive.
7.Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch

Kendall Grove

 


 

 

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About Author

I am a Purple Belt and Assistant Instructor for Draculino at Gracie Barra Texas. I also shoot a lot of videos and created a Youtube channel for Gracie Barra Texas, which got me the nick name "Paparazzi" due to my running around with cameras all the time.

(8) Readers Comments

  1. I hate when a fighter wins and complains about injury

  2. Rampage WINS!

  3. Put me on the list too! I was blinded for my dislike of Frank Mir

  4. Damn JR DILL is on fire with his picks!

    • This was a sleeper of a stacked card with awesome match ups. In the back of my mind I knew Mir would grind out a unanimous decision, but still wanted Nelson to pull off the upset. Oh, and everyone get ready to see the Struve knockout reel for the next century!

  5. 1. Boetsch
    2. Demetrious
    3. Browne
    4. Santiago
    5. Story
    6. Nelson
    7. Jackson

  6. Where is the UFC party at tonight?

  7. Hammel

    Mir

    Torres

    Alves

    No commit on the rest

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