Hello, I am a new contributor here at BJJ.org. For my first contribution, I am going to give a shot at predictions for the UFC on Fox 5 event.
Let’s take a quick look at the undercard:
Dennis Siver vs. Nam Phan
Mike Easton vs. Raphael Assuncao
Scott Jorgensen vs. John Albert
Tim Means vs. Abel Trujillo
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez
Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor
Jeremy Stephens vs. Yves Edwards
Although I am a fan of Nam Phan, and I appreciate him voicing his opinion on Steven Segal, I believe Siver’s stand up is too much for Nam Phan to deal with.
I think Easton has a favorable match up with his leg kick arsenal as well as Kimbo Slice boxing style. He will have to be careful defending the takedown, because Assuncao will definitely submit him. However, Easton has a good strong base and great takedown defense.
Scott Jorgensen is a beast, and he does not get enough credit for his skillset in my opinion.
I am not too familiar with Tim Means or Abel Trujillo, so this one is a toss up for me.
The little footage I have seen on Cruickshank (what were his ancestors thinking with that surname?) and Martinez tells me that Martinez is in for a rough night.
Nijem and Proctor could be mirror images of each other in the octagon. I give the edge to Nijem solely on my perception that his fight camp is just better than Proctor’s. We shall see.
Main Card Predictions:
Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio Rua
Rory MacDonald vs. B.J. Penn
Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown
I am VERY excited to see Swick in action again. I am even more excited that it is against Matt Brown. They are both studs, and have been for some time. I am going to predict that Swick is going to end this fight in the 2nd round via tko strikes. I Mike Swick is the better, faster, more technical striker and he can dictate where the fight ensues.
B.J. Penn, one of my favorite mma fighters for a long time has a fire lit under his butt, apparently. His camp has been doing a good job of putting out footage leading up to the fight. But, as much as it hurts to admit it, I don’t think this is a good match up for Penn. Penn can win this fight by either catching MacDonald with his powerful right cross, or by submitting MacDonald early in the fight. However, Penn has never been able to produce a performance at 170 that is cardio intensive. After one round against Nick Diaz, he was target practice. He also gassed against Jon Fitch. Rory MacDonald is going to come in with a gameplan to tire Penn out and pounce on him when that time comes. He will come in very ready for BJ’s jiu-jitsu with having GSP as a teammate and the advantage of learning from John Danaher. I think MacDonald will win this by decision two rounds to one.
Fair warning, I am a huge Shogun fan. I think this will be a tough task for him due to the reach advantage of Gustafsson, but Shogun is one of the gamest fighters there have ever been. Shogun is in possibly the best shape he has ever been in, and he has more than enough power in all four limbs to end this fight at any moment. His muay thai gives him an advantage in close range. That’s where he will want to be, if he allows Gustafsson to keep him on the outside, it will be a long night. I see Shogun taking this fight by tko.
Now, onto the main event…
I believe Ben Henderson will win this fight decisively. Ben Henderson should not have any trouble dealing with Nick Diaz boxing. He has faced much faster more technical strikers already. I don’t think I have ever seen anyone get out of more locked in submissions than Ben Henderson. I can still remember going nuts watching Cerrone locking, what felt like, a dozen submissions to no avail. I don’t see how Nate can win this fight barring a once in a lifetime lucky one hitter quitter. I do wonder if Nate Diaz will be able to anger Ben Henderson with that stockton style trash talking we are all used to seeing.
Follow me: @rubeneavila